Almost half of Spaniards claim to have managed to save in recent months. According to the Bank of Spain, we have been growing family wealth for three quarters. Savings and optimism increase regarding the general situation, according to the Cetelem Observatory of October 2021. After a pandemic year and another dragging restrictions, this Black Friday and the future Christmas campaign was eagerly awaited, both by consumers and sellers, but the supply crisis has lowered expectations.

“The increased possibilities for families to save due to confinement and the desire to spend after so much restriction are good data for this campaign,” says Neus Soler, collaborating professor at the UOC’s Economics and Business Studies, an expert in consumption and marketing. In this sense, “the purchase and consumption motivation of families, the savings collected during the pandemic period and the foreseeable increase in the average price of products due to the supply crisis lead us to estimate that the average expenditure will be 20% higher than in the previous season “, Soler explains.

Average spending this Black Friday is expected to be between € 180 to € 210 according to a report by Webloyalty and Google respectively, between 12% and 20% higher than the previous year. For Soler, the purchase intention will not be affected, but the experience will. “The consumer will advance his Christmas purchases to this period in view of the supply crisis so as not to run out of stocks, instead of waiting for the Christmas season, because waiting does not guarantee that he will finally obtain the product,” the expert details.

Fewer products, less discounts
“We are used to seeing a multitude of products with very attractive sales, but we must bear in mind that it will be an atypical Christmas and we will not have the same variety of products or discounts to which we are used; in fact, prices may rise “, warns Cristian Castillo, professor of Economics and Business Studies at the UOC, an expert in logistics. According to Google, for 36% of consumers, discounts and promotions are a key factor in their purchase and condition their final decision on the quality and quantity of offers they receive.

“We are in an unprecedented situation of global shortage and we have been dragging it for a year,” warns Castillo. According to the expert, this situation has occurred mainly for three main reasons: the first, the bottleneck of post-pandemic production: “The effect of COVID-19 meant a halt for the industry and its production, and now that it has Once the economy has been revived, the factories are not able to reactivate their manufacturing to the same degree that demand does, and therefore there is no stock, “he explains. On the other hand, the shortage of containers: “During COVID-19, many of the containers that arrived in Europe from Asia were not returned at the time, so, at this time, when we try to reactivate shipments,

A more expensive Black Friday
Adding all this up, it is expected that this Black Friday will become more expensive depending on which products and that there will be fewer discounts than in previous times. “Coming out of the COVID-19 crisis, companies assumed the expenses to reactivate consumption, but after a year, and with distribution prices skyrocketing, it is clear that they cannot bear that cost. Yes, in addition , we add the rise in the price of electricity or fuel, this ends up having an impact on the final product and on consumers, since the price of the products rises “, Castillo points out.

The end is not very encouraging either, at least in the short term: “Until the end of 2022, especially depending on how the pandemic evolves in this winter season, we will not be able to get out of this serious crisis,” warns the expert. The digital showcase continues to triumph Something that does not seem to change either this Black Friday or the Christmas campaign is the online channel as a preference. “The persistence of the fear of contagion, that face-to-face sales still do not offer the shopping experience that it could offer before the pandemic and that online stores apply convincing sales strategies (for example, free shipping) will make this campaign focus on the online channel, “explains Soler. According to Google data, this Black Friday 75% of consumers will buy online and only 22% will do so in a physical store.

The online buyer profile is quite balanced: 52% are women, and 48% are men. In relation to the preferred device to buy, for half it is already the mobile (50%), which surpasses the computer (47%). “Technological products are still in first place in the sales ranking of companies. As they are generally high-value products, it is attractive to buy them on Black Friday, taking advantage of the discount,” says Soler.

“Precisely the shortage of semiconductors will make the production prices of technological products higher. Normally, technology companies would take advantage of the launch of new models to reduce the outdated ones and get rid of the accumulated stock. However, the difficulties to produce can delay the prices. launches and keeping old models with moderate discounts “, explains Eduard Àlvarez, also a professor at the UOC’s Economics and Business Studies.

According to Webloyalty’s Black Friday 2021 report, there will be a 139% increase in purchases compared to the previous week. However, for Àlvarez, a rationalization in consumption would not be so negative: “That there is less consumption or a more responsible consumption, in the sense of acquiring only those products that are really needed, I do not think it is a bad dynamic, for at least for a certain time, to stop such unsustainable consumer behavior. “

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